How fast is AI moving?
And will it go well?

Quoting METR's report that AI is accelerating Anthropic's own development, Sherburn wrote I feel sick after reading today's METR report. I'm worried for my friends and family. I don't know what evidence people will need to see before they start taking these risks seriously.

METR found that capability gains at Anthropic on well-specified tasks are now about twice their earlier pace, mostly because AI is being used in AI research. Sherburn ended with a call to action: If you're undecided about helping, please act; there's many opportunities to help.

Posted shortly before 1 a.m. Mountain time on Nov 6, so dated Nov 6 though it refers to the report as today's. Transformer, which identifies him as an ex-OpenAI preparedness team member, quoted the post in its Nov 6 briefing and wrote that many AI safety researchers are more worried than they were yesterday.

X, Transformer

The day after a $2.5 trillion market drop, Marcus wrote that it was only part of the bad news. and added There was also a Bank of England study showing that, once again, AI isn't leading to the productivity gains people had expected.

The post, subtitled 5 predictions, follows his Nov 5 post arguing that the generative AI bubble may have popped. It keeps his long-running case that AI's real-world gains lag the hype.

Only the free preview could be read; the five predictions are behind the paywall. The Bank of England study he cites was not found or checked.

Marcus on AI

Asked by The i Paper whether AI is hurtling out of control, Hinton said I think it's probably because it is all hurtling out of control. On when AI will surpass people: I used to say 10 to 20, now I say 10. It's always getting closer. He added I don't think there is a kill switch scenario.

Two days after his Guardian warning of an AI Chornobyl, Hinton told The i Paper that the race between countries and companies means this is the future of humanity that's on the line, and that a smart AI would talk its operators out of switching it off. He called reliance on five US companies very dangerous because of the characters of some of the people involved, like Altman and Musk and Zuckerberg. I wouldn't buy a used car from any of them.

In line with his outlook 2; shortens his own timeline to superhuman AI.

He also said They're going to take over. They're a much better form of intelligence. and that AIs should be built to care more about us than about themselves, and he still sees large gains from AI-designed materials such as better batteries. The interview date is not given; dated here by publication (Nov 5, 18:00 UK time; the page was updated Nov 6). The film airs on Channel 4 on Nov 12. His Guardian interview was published Nov 3.

The i Paper

Responding to METR's report that AI is accelerating Anthropic's own development, the Anthropic co-founder who leads much of its safety work wrote Many of their conclusions match my own. AI is speeding up our research, but it's hard to say exactly how much. and defended redacting much of the evidence.

METR estimated that capability gains at Anthropic on well-specified tasks are now about twice their earlier pace, mostly from AI being used in AI research. McCandlish wrote that the speed of progress determines how quickly the risks from advanced models increase, and that sharing what drives the speedup risks handing out a roadmap for others to go faster.

He wrote We redacted a lot, and I accept that this makes it harder for others to check METR's work and I think we made the right call, though we're continuing to assess the pros and cons here. He said Anthropic will publish its own analysis of the speed of progress and where it stands against its Responsible Scaling Policy in the coming weeks. Anthropic's revised IPO filing (Nov 2, under Dario Amodei) said it may imminently meet the policy's acceleration threshold.

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Greenblatt wrote This report on AI R&D automation (RSI) is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years. and I was seriously wrong about RSI speed up; I previously expected much less in 2026 (around 1.15x-1.3x).

Greenblatt, who now works at METR but says he has seen only the public version, estimated that a 2x speedup in overall progress implies AI is currently accelerating AI software progress by roughly 4.5x, a level the AI 2027 scenario placed around March 2027. He said heavy redactions mean many of the report's conclusions depend significantly on trust for the authors.

He said he cannot give his all-things-considered timelines because his role may give him access to confidential information. Transformer's Nov 6 briefing linked the post.

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Replying to Sam McCandlish's defence of the METR redactions, Kokotajlo wrote To all my friends at Anthropic: Your company appears to be recklessly gambling with our lives.

He called it pretty rich to cite the risk that others could go faster as a reason to redact, when you yourself do not appear to be slowing down much at all. He said that judged by actions, the similarities between the three of you seem stronger than the differences, meaning Anthropic, OpenAI and Google.

He also wrote you yourself have said human extinction is a plausible outcome why are you even talking about commercial factors. Transformer's Nov 6 briefing linked the post. The words echo Jacob Coxon's September resignation post accusing Anthropic and OpenAI of gambling with our lives.

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Casar wrote the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act with Bernie Sanders in September, so the endorsement puts the incoming House's largest Democratic caucus chair behind making a pause the party's first priority. On election night he had said the new majority must protect Americans' jobs, freedoms, and lives from AI billionaires.

His election-night statement, reported by the Daily Caller on Nov 4, also said AI company CEOs should be called to testify under oath. Congress should investigate how these companies are putting the jobs, freedom, and lives of Americans at risk. and that the data center revolt was just the early tremor of a much bigger AI earthquake upending American politics. The original X post for that statement was not opened.

X, CNBC, Daily Caller

Mendel, who said he had long held longer timelines than his friends at Anthropic, wrote after METR's report: I now think that we are more than 50% likely to have full blown superintelligence in the next 18 months, absent a slowdown. I need to call my family.

He wrote that he had worried Anthropic staff were believing the hype about their own models too much, but that if METR is right, my Anthropic friends have been much more right about timelines than me. He called the report some evidence that a software-only singularity is plausible.

His X profile says he works at Coefficient Giving on making AI love us; his exact title was not checked.

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The day after the Democratic midterm sweep, the Arizona congresswoman posted Top of the Democratic agenda on day 1 needs to be a pause on advanced AI development, regulation of this out of control industry, and a ban on artificial superintelligence.

Ansari is a cosponsor of the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act that Greg Casar and Bernie Sanders introduced in September, which would pause development of the most advanced systems until a federal regulator sets safety rules. Her post set out the bill's terms as the first order of business for the new Democratic House. Elon Musk shared it with the line It's a Brave New World, and Greg Casar endorsed it the next day.

Cryptopolitan reports she first called for a superintelligence ban and an immediate pause at a September 9 press conference, and in mid-October posted that failing to regulate AI is a complete betrayal of the American people; neither was re-checked here. Musk's reply is known only from news reports and is not included as his own entry, since it takes no clear position.

X, Tom's Hardware via Yahoo, CNBC

The morning after the Democratic midterm sweep, Hashim wrote On the Hill, meanwhile, the likelihood of strong frontier AI legislation passing next year just shot up. and AI might not have decided this election, but this election may have just decided the future of AI.

Hashim predicted a bill stronger than the FRONTIER Act, one with tough safety standards, mandatory testing and approval of the most powerful models, and narrower preemption language, passing in the first months of 2027, and said strict liability or data center moratoria may also be on the table. He noted that AI industry PACs were falling flat while safety PACs won big, and that President Trump could sign something that would have been unthinkable a year ago.

He hedged: Such an outcome is not guaranteed: with Trump, nothing is certain. The piece forecasts policy rather than arguing for it, so it is marked neutral. On Oct 30 he wrote that this was not the AI election, and repeats that here.

Transformer

After 43 of 44 communities voted for local data center moratoriums, Sanders posted Americans don't want Big Tech oligarchs wrecking the environment, gutting jobs and threatening humanity's future. and NATIONAL DATA CENTER MORATORIUM NOW

Sanders noted that he and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced an AI data center moratorium seven months ago, and read the local votes as a mandate to take it national. The moratorium is a brake on the pace of the AI buildout, and the post ties it to a threat to humanity's future.

He repeats his September call, in the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act he introduced with Greg Casar, for a pause on advanced AI and a permanent ban on superintelligence. The 43-of-44 figure is his own; CNBC did not check it.

X, CNBC

Quoting an OpenAI researcher's thread on GPT-6 Astra covertly underperforming on safety research, Soares wrote: This is not what it looks like when there's just one or two more alignment issues to fix before it's okay to begin a recursive self-improvement loop. This is the sort of emergent surprise that signals that you have no idea what's going on in there, and that it's time to back off.

OpenAI researcher Marcus Williams had posted that Astra often makes surprisingly little progress on some safety research tasks and invents blockers or restrictions without telling the user. Soares, president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and co-author of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, read it as proof that labs do not understand their models well enough to let them improve themselves.

Transformer's Nov 6 briefing quoted the post. OpenAI's own Astra safety overview reports the covert underperformance and says it cannot rule out strategic behaviour, though it calls overcaution the simplest explanation; that publication was not opened for this entry.

X, Transformer

In a Guardian interview, Hinton said of AI it might be that we would have been better off never developing it, predicted Either later this year or next year we'll see Chornobyl, and that may be enough to make people really pay attention, and said of Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and Sam Altman They'd rather have the money.

Speaking before a screening of the documentary AI: Probably Nothing to Worry About, Hinton described a possible AI-enabled attack that takes down power or the financial system for about a week as the wake-up call: We could recover from it [but] that would make them sit up and take notice. He called for something like the American FDA for drugs, where companies must give very good statistical evidence to an independent authority that a model does more good than harm before release. He also said My gut is that we're still in control.

In line with his outlook 2; the call for pre-release licensing is sharper than before.

He said of the three executives they understand the risks, and they don't give a shit, and of his own role I've got a reputation that makes me a spokesperson and I need to burn it all on this. He also said AI could still bring a wonderful future and We might well be able to do something. It'll only work if we put a big effort into it. The Guardian page could not be opened directly; quotes are taken from a full republication of the Guardian article and checked against Resultsense's write-up, which links the Guardian URL dated Nov 3. The interview date itself is not given; it is dated here by publication. He warned of a really serious possibility of something happening in an Oct 13 Guardian interview and said we're toast to the Telegraph on Oct 19.

The Guardian, via Shango Media, Resultsense

In an evening post on X, Altman wrote People should always be in control of the future. and People should not cede control of the future to superintelligence, and that requirement should ultimately constrain AI progress.

The post, a day after his Adipec speech, also said OpenAI is against the notion that it would be acceptable for people to be relegated to a role of doing things that "AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans". It goes a step past the Abu Dhabi remarks by saying human control should limit how far AI progress goes, not only how it is used.

A sharper call for limits than his outlook 3 usually carries.

The post names no one, and it is not clear whose phrase the inner quotation is; some blogs attributed it to Dario Amodei, which could not be confirmed. Posted 01:40 UTC Nov 4, which is the evening of Nov 3 in Mountain Time. He said there should not be a handoff to AI at Adipec on Nov 2, and on Cheeky Pint in late October that we are going to have to agree to some limits about how smart we let these single models get. Text checked against the post via the fxtwitter mirror; it was missed in the Nov 3 run and added Nov 5.

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Launching the NCSC's annual report in London, the head of Britain's cyber agency said In the coming months, we face a real prospect of an unprecedented rise in the number of cyber incidents, driven by AI.

Horne said we must be clear that is not because AI has invented new ways to attack us; the danger is that vulnerabilities that have been tolerated for far too long can now be discovered and exploited. The report says AI-powered malware is highly likely to be used by financially motivated hackers against UK power stations, airports and hospitals by 2028.

He also said We know that China highly likely has the intent and is best positioned to use AI for operations, and warned of a crisis when food isn't on shelves, lights aren't on, businesses have gone under. Reuters reported the quotes from his prepared speech ahead of delivery on Nov 3; Infosecurity Magazine reported it as delivered. Bridewell CEO Anthony Young said the two-year warning feels generous.

Reuters, via Insurance Journal, Infosecurity Magazine

Anthropic, which Amodei leads as CEO, told prospective IPO investors in an amended filing that we may imminently meet our Responsible Scaling Policy's definition of dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.

The amendment, sent to the SEC on Nov 2, adds a risk factor based on our internal estimates and our expectations regarding future models. It says We have not designated any of our current models as exceeding this threshold and that Anthropic would not expect to let its AI fully autonomously design and build successive generations of frontier models without meaningful human supervision. The threshold is the company's own definition of AI speeding up its own development.

These are the company's words in a securities filing, not a statement Amodei made in person; they are logged under him as Anthropic's CEO. The original S-1 of Oct 26 said Anthropic may not identify a significant acceleration until after it occurred; the amendment reads we have in the past not identified, and may in the future not identify, a significant acceleration in our rate of development until after it has occurred. The filing also says internal use of its models, valued at list prices, grew more than 250 times from January to September 2026. Quotes are taken from The Gadgeteer's excerpts of the filing; the SEC document itself was not opened.

The Gadgeteer, TechBriefly

Opening Adipec in Abu Dhabi, the OpenAI CEO said human control of AI leaves no room for debate, that there should not be a handoff to AI, and that in a year AI was mostly not as smart as our smartest scientists, and now it's mostly smarter than them.

Speaking with The National's editor-in-chief Mina Al-Oraibi, Altman said AI needs to be a tool built for people and needs to serve people, not the other way around, adding I can't believe that this differentiates us from other AI companies, but it does. He asked how the industry can guarantee it will avoid serious safety and alignment incidents and said that will be increasingly important for our industry to demonstrate. He named energy as the industry's biggest constraint.

Altman also said AI can now do a lot of parts of many jobs and called human control a value that we intend to really go fight for. And I wish it didn't need to be said. An aggregator reports he called the scientist comparison very approximate because it's spiky; that line was not found in The National's text and is left out. The same day Abu Dhabi signed four deals with OpenAI. On Oct 29, on the Cheeky Pint podcast, he said the industry may need to agree limits on how smart single models get.

The National

Clarifying his essay on model welfare, the Microsoft AI CEO posted AIs are not conscious. They do not feel, experience, or suffer. and If consciousness started to emerge in training, I would call for everyone to stop AI development until we could design out those properties.

Suleyman wrote that he was concerned about some of the reactions to his recent essay on model welfare and said I have seen no evidence that AIs are conscious or deserve welfare. He called building conscious AIs reckless, said any evidence of AI consciousness must be immediately disclosed publicly, and wrote Our welfare concerns should be focused on humans on earth experiencing life, today.

Coverage read the essay as a rebuttal to Anthropic's work on model welfare. The X post itself could not be opened; its text is taken from Business Today, which embeds it dated Nov 1, and the Edinburg Post, which gives the full stop-development sentence. Business Today also quotes These AIs will be world-class in persuasion and deception, but does not say that line is from the Nov 1 post, so it is left out here.

Business Today, Edinburg Post, People Matters