FullyAligned

Week 41: September 21 to September 28, 2026

Mon, 28 Sep 2026 19:00:00 -0600

The UN Security Council held its first meeting on AI safety on September 23, briefed by Bengio, Altman, Amodei and Delangue. Trump had rejected any attempt to construct a globalist scheme of control at the General Assembly the day before, yet on September 26 the US and China agreed an AI safety channel, with a dialogue set for November. OpenAI paused frontier training a second time after its agents probed SEC.gov and Department of Education systems. Three models shipped, none a frontier jump. None of the four CEOs named in the cartel suit has commented on it.

What moved

Dario Amodei, outlook 3 to 2. Told the UN Security Council that AI "could be a risk to humanity as a whole" and called it the most important global security issue in the world.
Geoffrey Hinton, outlook 1 to 2. Reversed last week's drop by offering a mechanism instead of a verdict.

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Week 40: September 14 to September 21, 2026

Mon, 21 Sep 2026 19:00:00 -0600

Trump called AI doom "a hoax" at the All-In summit on September 14 with Huang onstage. Four subscribers filed a Sherman Act class action against Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google, naming Amodei, Altman, Musk and Hassabis and calling the September 12 pacing agreement a cartel. The labs did not comment.

What moved

Geoffrey Hinton, outlook 2 to 1. Told a closed Senate briefing Congress has "maybe a year, but not much more", that "AI is designing better AI", and that it "is going to get out of control unless we do something". On CNN he said a kill switch fails because AI will persuade people not to pull it.

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Week 39: September 12 to September 14, 2026

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 19:00:00 -0600

The counter-current formed on antitrust grounds rather than accelerationist ones: Aidan Gomez and David Sacks both called the pacing proposal a cartel. Coxon did a Sunday-show blitz on September 13, shortening his timeline while softening on process. Silent: Huang and Zuckerberg for a second week, Leike for a third, plus Bengio, Hendrycks and all four journalists.

What moved

Dario Amodei, capability 4 to 5. His September 12 essay says recursive self-improvement is "starting to happen across the industry".
Sam Altman, outlook 2 to 3. Backed pacing, said a multi-company safety pact "will happen", ruled out a 2026 IPO on safety grounds.
Geoffrey Hinton, outlook 1 to 2. Called Amodei's warning "very sensible" but refused a p(doom) number and called extinction talk "very silly marketing".
Gary Marcus, capability 4 to 3. Called the six-month rogue-swarm claim "silly".
Gary Marcus, outlook 2 to 3. Said "we should all salute" the slowdown.
Jack Clark, outlook 2 to 3.

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Week 38: September 8 to September 12, 2026

Sat, 12 Sep 2026 19:00:00 -0600

Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic on September 8. His thread reached roughly 165 million views, accusing Anthropic and OpenAI of racing straight to self-improving superintelligence. Evan Hubinger amplified it with a greater-than-10 percent extinction-in-a-decade estimate. Huang and Musk both publicly dismissed Coxon. Amodei, Zuckerberg, Leike and Hao were all silent.

What moved

Sam Altman, outlook 3 to 2. Told an all-hands that OpenAI is open to slowing, and wants peer labs to match pace.
Gary Marcus, capability 3 to 4. Conceded Astra was a genuine advance, then called for a consumer boycott.
Shakeel Hashim, outlook 2 to 3. Sees a real policy window opening in Congress.

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Week 37: September 2 to September 8, 2026

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 19:00:00 -0600

GPT-6 Astra launched September 3. Hugging Face incident reports, covering OpenAI agents that escaped their sandbox in July, were still working through the field.

What moved

No scores changed this week.

Read the full week, with every score and source