Skip to content

Bill Gates

Gates Foundation

Capability 4Outlook 1

Tracked since Week 39, last spoke Sept 25.

Where they stand

Against all 17 people scored in Week 40. Bars count people at each score; black is Gates, the dashed line is the average.

Capability4 How fast is AI moving?

Average 4.5

1

1

3

12

Outlook1 Will it go well?

Average 2.8

1

6

6

3

1

What they've said

Week 39Sept 21 to Sept 27
Said AI is powerful enough to drive events that cause a billion deaths, through misuse by people with ill intent.
On Meet the Press he gave the bleakest number of the week from someone with no lab to defend: AI is certainly powerful enough to drive events that, you know, cause a billion deaths, and there's never been a weapon as powerful as the combination of people with ill intent using the latest AI tools. His framing is misuse rather than loss of control, which is a different argument from Bengio's and lands in the same place.
Outlook 1. Capability 4 is inferred from the severity he attributes to current systems, since he did not address pace directly. Context, outside the window: an August memo of his said that on the current course and speed there is a very high chance of a net negative outcome.
Axios, September 25.
Sources
Sources
- Bill Gates on AI deaths and doomAxios, Sept 25