About FullyAligned

FullyAligned is a weekly record of what the people building, funding, studying and reporting on AI say about it in public, and of how their views change.

The name is a joke with a point. In AI, alignment means getting a system to do what its makers intend. The people making those systems are nowhere near aligned with each other: some expect abundance, some expect catastrophe, and several have moved between the two in a single month. This site keeps score.

Two questions, every week

Capability trajectory, 1 to 5, is how fast the person thinks AI is moving. 1 means progress is flattening. 5 means it is accelerating, usually with talk of AI improving itself.

Outlook, 1 to 5, is how they expect it to turn out. 1 expects a bad outcome, up to and including catastrophe. 5 expects a good one.

Together the two numbers sort people into four groups that show up every week: fast and optimistic, fast and undecided, fast and worried, and those who doubt the pace.

How a week gets made

Each Sunday a fixed roster is searched person by person for what they said in the previous seven days. Podcasts, posts, interviews, essays, papers and testimony all count. A score changes only when something they said that week supports the change, and the reading under each name quotes it.

If someone said nothing new, their previous score is carried forward and marked with an asterisk, so a carried score shows the last time they spoke. Each week can also add up to two people outside the roster who drew wide attention. Someone added three weeks running joins the roster.

Quotes come from primary sources wherever they exist and are corroborated across independent outlets otherwise. A quote that cannot be verified is not published. It is dropped, and the week's evidence notes say what was dropped and why. Where a fact is disputed, such as a filing date, the page says so rather than picking a side.

The research and writing are done by Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, working to this method, and each week publishes automatically on Sunday evening with any uncertainty flagged on the page. Anthropic's own people are on the roster and get the same treatment as everyone else. That is worth knowing when you read their scores.

Who is tracked

The current roster of 17:

How much to trust a score

Each score is one editorial reading of dated public statements, made to the method above and open to argument. Everyone quoted said these things in public, and every source is linked. When something is wrong, it gets corrected on the page and the change is noted where it happened.

Follow along

Subscribe below for one email each Sunday, follow the RSS feed, or take the raw data and chart it yourself.

Get each week by email

One email on Sunday evening when the new week posts: what moved, who went quiet, and the full scores. Nothing else.