People

Where they stand

Against all 17 people scored in Week 40. Bars count people at each score; black is Clark, the dashed line is the average.

What they've said

• Week 40Sept 28 to Oct 4

  Co-authored the intelligence-explosion paper citing Anthropic's own data on AI-written code.

  Clark is a co-author of the September 28 paper. The Anthropic figures it cites, over 80% of approved code written by AI and R&D done under light supervision rising from 1% to 26%, are the company's own. Putting them in a public warning is consistent with his position. Scores hold at 5 and 3.

  Sources

  Sources

  • Hinton, Bengio and AI lab scientists warn of an intelligence explosionThe Next Web, Sept 28
• Week 39Sept 21 to Sept 27

  Argued that pacing is coming and should be done with scalpels, two days after a lawsuit called pacing a cartel.

  Import AI 473, published September 21, contains the sharpest image of the week. On US strategy: it is analogous to me to sitting in a car and spending all your resources on making the car go faster and upgrading the engine, and nothing on proactive safety measures like seatbelts or headlights or brakes. On trajectory, he wrote of the tsunami of progress beginning to wash into the world, while platforming Toby Ord's argument that singular growth is harder than assumed, which keeps him at 5 without the full explosion claim.

  Held at 3 because some kind of pacing will happen at some point is a prediction he is trying to make competent rather than avoid: the question is whether we wield scalpels when it's time to regulate versus blunderbusses. The oddity is the timing. Two days after a class action alleging the labs illegally agreed to pace development, Anthropic's policy lead published a long argument that pacing is inevitable, without mentioning the lawsuit.

  Import AI 473, September 21.

  Sources

  Sources

  • Import AI 473Import AI, Sept 21
• Week 37Sept 7 to Sept 13

  Outlook 2 to 3