Archive

Week 42

September 28 to October 5, 2026

This week in a paragraph

On September 29 Trump signed an executive order directing agencies to say super intelligence and hosted Musk, Zuckerberg, Huang, Amodei, Pichai and OpenAI's Greg Brockman, who signed a voluntary four-layer accord of internal controls and outside audits. Musk called it grading each other's homework; the text allows that over time, it may make sense to codify these steps into laws. The day before, Hinton, Bengio, Clark and OpenAI's Jakub Pachocki co-authored a paper warning that the window for action may close once an intelligence explosion begins. On October 3 Altman called religious framing of AI models a real safety issue.

What changed

No scores changed this week.

Score changed this week New signal, score unchanged No new signal, carried forward Position last week Added this week, outside the regular roster
1234512345 Capability trajectory 1 is flattening, 5 is accelerating Outlook 1 expects a bad outcome, 5 expects a good one Jensen Huang: capability 5, outlook 5, unchangedElon Musk: capability 5, outlook 4, unchangedMark Zuckerberg: capability 5, outlook 4, unchangedDemis Hassabis: capability 4, outlook 4, carried forward, 3 weeks with no new signalSam Altman: capability 5, outlook 3, unchangedJack Clark: capability 5, outlook 3, unchangedShakeel Hashim: capability 5, outlook 3, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalClément Delangue: capability 4, outlook 3, added this weekDario Amodei: capability 5, outlook 2, unchangedYoshua Bengio: capability 5, outlook 2, unchangedAjeya Cotra: capability 5, outlook 2, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalGeoffrey Hinton: capability 5, outlook 2, unchangedKevin Roose: capability 5, outlook 2, carried forward, 2 weeks with no new signalJakub Pachocki: capability 5, outlook 2, added this weekBill Gates: capability 4, outlook 1, added this weekGary Marcus: capability 3, outlook 3, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalYann LeCun: capability 2, outlook 3, carried forward, 3 weeks with no new signal HuangMuskZuckerbergHassabis *AltmanClarkHashim *Delangue *AmodeiBengioCotra *HintonRoose *PachockiGates *Marcus *LeCun *
People who share a score pair are stacked vertically inside their cell, up to 6 deep, so the standings below carry the exact scores. An asterisk marks a score carried forward because the person produced no new signal that week. The hollow ring is last week's position; no one moved this week.

Where everyone stands

Grouped by that week's scores, so a person changes groups only when their score moves. Open any name for the full reading and sources.

Fast and optimistic 4

Capability 4 or 5, outlook 4 or 5
Jensen HuangNvidiaSigned the accord: There's no conflict between innovation, technology and safety.Last spoke Sept 29Capability 5Outlook 5

Huang signed and told reporters, per CBS, There's no conflict between innovation, technology and safety. It fits his usual line and he said nothing new on risk. Scores hold at 5 and 5.

Elon MuskSpaceXAISigned the White House accord and described it as the companies grading each other's homework.Last spoke Sept 29Capability 5Outlook 4

Musk signed the Joint Commitment on Frontier Responsibilities on September 29 and explained it in his own terms: We agreed to a number of things that include joint monitoring, board special committees, just generally grading each other's homework. In a second account he added that this is a lot better than if people just grade their own homework. The commitment is voluntary and he offered no view on whether it will bind anyone. Scores hold at 5 and 4: he is backing outside checking, but still as an industry arrangement.

Mark ZuckerbergMetaSigned the accord and called it a starting point for industry-wide standards.Last spoke Sept 29Capability 5Outlook 4

Zuckerberg signed on September 29. The Korea Times reports he said the accord is meant to show AI works in the way that we intend and called it a starting point for industry-wide standards. That is a customer-assurance framing more than a risk framing. Scores hold.

Demis HassabisGoogle DeepMindThird silent week in what we could check.Silent 3 weeksNo new signalCapability 4Outlook 4

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Fast and undecided 4

Capability 4 or 5, outlook 3
Sam AltmanOpenAIPosted that ascribing religious force to AI models is a real safety issue, in a veiled reply to Anthropic.Last spoke Oct 3Capability 5Outlook 3

On October 3 Altman posted on X: I am very uncomfortable about people trying to ascribe religious force or a surrender of human judgment to AI models, and think it is a real safety issue. Coverage ties it to a New York Times report that Anthropic's Chris Olah has met religious leaders about model consciousness and morals. An Anthropic spokesperson said the talks were not about giving Claude religious authority. The post is a safety argument aimed at a rival rather than a change in his own forecast, so scores hold at 5 and 3. OpenAI's president Greg Brockman signed the accord on the company's behalf; Altman himself is not quoted on it in anything we could verify.

Jack ClarkAnthropicCo-authored the intelligence-explosion paper citing Anthropic's own data on AI-written code.Last spoke Sept 28Capability 5Outlook 3

Clark is a co-author of the September 28 paper. The Anthropic figures it cites, over 80% of approved code written by AI and R&D done under light supervision rising from 1% to 26%, are the company's own. Putting them in a public warning is consistent with his position. Scores hold at 5 and 3.

Shakeel HashimTransformerFirst silent week in what we could check.Silent this weekNo new signalCapability 5Outlook 3

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Clément DelangueHugging FaceFirst silent week in what we could check.Added this weekSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 4Outlook 3

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Fast and worried 7

Capability 4 or 5, outlook 1 or 2
Dario AmodeiAnthropicSigned the accord while saying the mechanism for addressing risk is still under discussion.Last spoke Sept 29Capability 5Outlook 2

Amodei signed on September 29. The Korea Times quotes him: the technology has very real risks, and the mechanism, how we address those risks, is still under discussion, and whoever wins AI, wins. I think that's very important. The first line keeps his earlier position that the accord is a start. The second is a competitive framing in the same breath as the call for oversight. He did not repeat last month's call to slow down in anything we could verify this week. Scores hold at 5 and 2.

Yoshua BengioLawZeroCo-author of the intelligence-explosion paper calling for embedded auditors and capability limits.Last spoke Sept 28Capability 5Outlook 2

Bengio co-authored the September 28 intelligence-explosion paper (see Hinton). His position is unchanged: the paper's asks, embedded auditors, capability limits and international agreements, go further than the voluntary accord signed the next day. Scores hold at 5 and 2.

Geoffrey HintonNobel laureateCo-author of a paper warning that the window for action may close once an intelligence explosion begins.Last spoke Sept 28Capability 5Outlook 2

Hinton is a co-author, with Bengio, Clark, OpenAI's Jakub Pachocki and more than 20 others, of a paper on what happens if AI research automation triggers an intelligence explosion. It reports AI writing over 80% of approved code at Anthropic and light-supervision R&D rising from 1% to 26% between March and August 2026, and says Once an intelligence explosion begins, the window for action may close. It asks for visibility into lab R&D automation, embedded auditors, capability limits and international agreements. No separate Hinton statement was verified. Scores hold at 5 and 2.

Jakub PachockiOpenAIOpenAI's chief scientist co-authored the paper warning of an intelligence explosion.Added this weekLast spoke Sept 28Capability 5Outlook 2

Added as a guest. OpenAI's chief scientist is a co-author of the September 28 paper warning that once an intelligence explosion begins the window for action may close. It is rare for the person running OpenAI's research to put his name to that. No separate statement from him was verified, so the reading rests on the paper alone and the scores (5 and 2) are provisional.

Ajeya CotraMETRFirst silent week in what we could check.Silent this weekNo new signalCapability 5Outlook 2

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Kevin RooseMachine Gods, NPRSecond silent week in what we could check.Silent 2 weeksNo new signalCapability 5Outlook 2

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Bill GatesGates FoundationFirst silent week in what we could check.Added this weekSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 4Outlook 1

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Doubts the pace 2

Capability 3 or lower, any outlook
Gary MarcusAI criticFirst silent week in what we could check.Silent this weekNo new signalCapability 3Outlook 3

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Yann LeCunAMI LabsThird silent week in what we could check.Silent 3 weeksNo new signalCapability 2Outlook 3

No statement verified this week. Scores carried from last week.

Notes on this week's evidence

No roster score changed this week. The accord and the paper are the news, but the people who signed or co-wrote them said things consistent with where they already stood, and quotes we could not verify were left out.

  • Altman's quote comes from search extracts of the Axios report and several outlets repeating it. Axios and Bloomberg returned 403 and could not be opened; the linked Storyboard18 page paraphrases rather than quotes.
  • No individual quotes were found for Huang beyond the CBS line, nor for Pichai, Brockman, Hinton, Bengio, Clark or Pachocki on the accord or paper. The paper is cited rather than any personal statement.
  • Reported but not verified at a primary source, so left out of scores: OpenAI shelving a model called GPT-6.1 Astra over deception findings and pausing frontier training, an FTC investigation of OpenAI, Anthropic and METR, and a SynthID Bio launch by DeepMind (the DeepMind post was read, and contains no Hassabis quote).
  • Demis Hassabis, Gary Marcus, Shakeel Hashim, Ajeya Cotra, Yann LeCun, Kevin Roose and others are marked silent because searches turned up nothing verifiable, not because silence is proven. X, Substack archives, podcasts and paywalled outlets could not be checked, so this week's carried list is probably too long.
  • Jan Leike, Dan Hendrycks and Karen Hao have now been silent for the full run and drop out of the week file under the five-week rule; they stay on the roster and return when they speak. The week runs at 17 people, under the 20 target, because no other guests were verifiable.