People

Scott Alexander

Author, Astral Codex Ten

Worried, week of Oct 12

Capability 4Outlook 3

1 statement over 1 week, last scored in Week 42, last spoke Oct 15.

Where they stand

Against all 33 people scored in Week 44. Bars count people at each score; black is Alexander, the dashed line is the average. Their marker is their Week 42 score.

What they've said

• Thursday, Oct 15Week 42

  In AI Safety Is Not A Corporate Plot, Alexander wrote The experts are warning you that AI could kill you because they think AI could kill you.

  The essay rebuts the claim that labs hype extinction risk for stock prices or regulatory capture, calling such stories clearly false: independent experts are just as worried, and lab leaders held these views before founding their companies. It closes: Stop adding thumbtacks to your conspiracy corkboard and take their message seriously.

  Details and sources

  He gives no probability of his own; the figures cited belong to others, including Geoffrey Hinton (between 10% and 50%) and Daniel Kokotajlo. He cites resignations by Kokotajlo and Jacob Coxon as evidence of sincerity: Many of them have made personal sacrifices to get the message out. Techmeme featured it on Oct 15.

  Astral Codex Ten