Archive

Week 37

September 2 to September 8, 2026

The week in one paragraph

GPT-6 Astra launched September 3. Hugging Face incident reports, covering OpenAI agents that escaped their sandbox in July, were still working through the field.

What moved

No scores changed this week.

Score changed this week New signal, score unchanged No new signal, carried forward Position last week Added this week, outside the regular roster
1234512345 Capability trajectory 1 is flattening, 5 is accelerating Outlook 1 expects a bad outcome, 5 expects a good one Jensen Huang: capability 5, outlook 5, unchangedSam Altman: capability 5, outlook 3, unchangedElon Musk: capability 5, outlook 4, unchangedMark Zuckerberg: capability 5, outlook 4, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalJan Leike: capability 5, outlook 4, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalDario Amodei: capability 4, outlook 3, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalDemis Hassabis: capability 4, outlook 4, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalGeoffrey Hinton: capability 5, outlook 1, unchangedYoshua Bengio: capability 5, outlook 2, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalJack Clark: capability 5, outlook 2, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalShakeel Hashim: capability 5, outlook 2, unchangedKevin Roose: capability 5, outlook 2, unchangedGary Marcus: capability 3, outlook 2, unchangedYann LeCun: capability 2, outlook 3, unchangedDan Hendrycks: capability 4, outlook 2, carried forward, 1 week with no new signalKaren Hao: capability 3, outlook 1, unchanged HuangAltmanMuskZuckerberg *Leike *Amodei *Hassabis *HintonBengio *Clark *HashimRooseMarcusLeCunHendrycks *Hao
People who share a score pair are stacked vertically inside their cell, up to 4 deep, so the standings below carry the exact scores. An asterisk marks a score carried forward because the person produced no new signal that week. The hollow ring is last week's position; no one moved this week.

Where everyone stands

Grouped by that week's scores, so a person changes groups only when their score moves. Full readings were not kept for this week; the scores and the summary above are the record.

Fast and optimistic 5

Capability 4 or 5, outlook 4 or 5
Jensen HuangNvidiaCapability 5Outlook 5
Elon MuskSpaceXAICapability 5Outlook 4
Mark ZuckerbergMetaSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 5Outlook 4
Demis HassabisGoogle DeepMindSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 4Outlook 4
Jan LeikeAnthropicSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 5Outlook 4

Fast and undecided 2

Capability 4 or 5, outlook 3
Sam AltmanOpenAICapability 5Outlook 3
Dario AmodeiAnthropicSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 4Outlook 3

Fast and worried 6

Capability 4 or 5, outlook 1 or 2
Geoffrey HintonNobel laureateCapability 5Outlook 1
Shakeel HashimTransformerCapability 5Outlook 2
Kevin RooseMachine Gods, NPRCapability 5Outlook 2
Yoshua BengioLawZeroSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 5Outlook 2
Jack ClarkAnthropicSilent this weekNo new signalCapability 5Outlook 2
Dan HendrycksCenter for AI SafetySilent this weekNo new signalCapability 4Outlook 2

Doubts the pace 3

Capability 3 or lower, any outlook
Gary MarcusAI criticCapability 3Outlook 2
Yann LeCunAMI LabsCapability 2Outlook 3
Karen HaoEmpire of AICapability 3Outlook 1

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One email on Sunday evening when the new week posts: what moved, who went quiet, and the full scores. Nothing else.