People

Ryan Greenblatt

Member of technical staff, METR

Worried, this week

Not scored yet. New voices get a score when the week closes on Sunday.

1 statement over 1 week, last spoke Nov 5.

What they've said

• Thursday, Nov 5Week 45

  Greenblatt wrote This report on AI R&D automation (RSI) is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years. and I was seriously wrong about RSI speed up; I previously expected much less in 2026 (around 1.15x-1.3x).

  Greenblatt, who now works at METR but says he has seen only the public version, estimated that a 2x speedup in overall progress implies AI is currently accelerating AI software progress by roughly 4.5x, a level the AI 2027 scenario placed around March 2027. He said heavy redactions mean many of the report's conclusions depend significantly on trust for the authors.

  Details and sources

  He said he cannot give his all-things-considered timelines because his role may give him access to confidential information. Transformer's Nov 6 briefing linked the post.

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