People

Stephen Casper

Belfer Center, Harvard

Worried, week of Oct 19

Capability 4Outlook 2

1 statement over 1 week, last scored in Week 43, last spoke Oct 19.

Where they stand

Against all 33 people scored in Week 44. Bars count people at each score; black is Casper, the dashed line is the average. Their marker is their Week 43 score.

What they've said

• Monday, Oct 19Week 43

  Asked whether a major AI-enabled terror event is coming, Casper told the Harvard Gazette Something's eventually going to happen, because if there is a bad AI capability that can exist, it will eventually widely proliferate.

  Casper co-wrote a Belfer Center pre-mortem on the first major AI-enabled terrorist attack. On timing he said The trends here would suggest there are credible risks within months, or a year or two, if not now, and that open-weight models matching today's frontier cyber capabilities will be a shock to the cyber world, I think.

  Details and sources

  The paper defines a major event as more than 50 deaths or serious injuries, or more than $1 billion in damage, and argues it is not too late if AI firms act decisively.

  Harvard Gazette